Borders, Factories, Billionaires
Trump’s New Immigration Order – A Déjà Vu or a Whole New Playbook?
America’s Immigration Debate
What challenges is Germany’s industrial sector facing?
Musk’s $97B OpenAI bid—power play or just disruption?
Why Immigration Is Back in the Spotlight
Few topics in American politics are as polarising—or persistent—as immigration. Public opinion has swung wildly from border security to labour markets over the past two decades. However, if recent trends are any indication, dissatisfaction with U.S. immigration policies is now at a new peak.
What Do the Numbers Say? A Look at Immigration Trends
Official immigration enforcement data provides a perspective. The U.S. tracks two key categories:
Returns: When an individual who is in the U.S. illegally leaves voluntarily without a formal removal order.
Removals: When an individual is officially ordered to leave the country.
A look at historical trends reveals some stark patterns. During the 1990s, the government increasingly relied on “voluntary departure” (Returns) as a border enforcement tool, leading to consistently high return numbers, peaking at over 1.5 million per year between 1996 and 2000. However, as immigration policies evolved and legal frameworks tightened, enforcement agencies began shifting towards formal removal (Removals) procedures, reducing the use of voluntary returns.
As a result, removals surged from just 30,039 in 1990 to a peak of 415,579 in 2012. However, after 2013, deportation numbers declined sharply, reaching a low of 108,733 in 2022, while return numbers had already fallen to 261,387 in the same year. This transition underscores a fundamental shift in how the U.S. government has handled unauthorised immigration over the past three decades, moving away from voluntary departures towards a more formal legal process.
Public sentiment around immigration is not merely about how policies impact newcomers; it also reflects how these measures shape job markets, local communities, and broader social dynamics within the United States. Campaign promises often amplify voter optimism, leading to a temporary drop in dissatisfaction and a brief surge in satisfaction when a new president enters office. Yet this “honeymoon” phase is short-lived if the administration’s policies fail to meet public expectations.
Among the last three presidents, Donald Trump registered the highest approval ratings on immigration—ranging from 34% to 41%—thanks in part to his forceful rhetoric and controversial proposals like the border wall, which resonated with those prioritising stricter border enforcement. By contrast, Joe Biden faced a not bad 39% disapproval rating before taking office, a figure that dropped to 28% by 2024. The persistent challenges at the southern border and debates over asylum policies suggest that the Biden administration has struggled to fulfill heightened campaign expectations, leaving the American public increasingly dissatisfied.
Trump’s New Immigration Order – A Déjà Vu or a Whole New Playbook?
If you thought Trump’s immigration stance mellowed over the years, think again. His latest executive order is a full-throttle revival of his first-term policies—only this time, it’s even more aggressive. From scrapping birthright citizenship to supercharging deportations, let’s break down what’s changing and what it means.
🔹 End of Birthright Citizenship—Babies born in the U.S. to noncitizen parents? No automatic citizenship. Trump argues this will deter illegal immigration, but legal battles are all but guaranteed, as past court rulings have upheld the 14th Amendment’s provision.
🔹 Deportation Fast-Track—U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is shifting gears to prioritise the removal of the nearly 1.2 million undocumented individuals with pending deportation orders. Expect logistical nightmares as the agency ramps up its operations.
🔹 Local-Federal Crackdown—Trump reinstates the requirement for federal immigration authorities to share data with local law enforcement, making it easier to detain and deport undocumented immigrants.
🔮 What’s Next for Immigration Policy?
Looking ahead, the Trump administration is expected to push for:
More Border Agents & Surveillance – The 2025 budget earmarks funding for 5,000 new border agents and high-tech monitoring systems.
Employer Sanctions – Businesses hiring undocumented workers could face tougher penalties, aligning with Trump’s ‘America First’ economic strategy.
Fewer Refugees – Under Trump’s first term, refugee admissions hit a record low of 15,000 annually. Don’t expect that number to climb anytime soon.
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Germany’s Industrial Slowdown—A Crisis in the Making? 🇩🇪⚙️
Germany’s industrial sector is under immense pressure, with businesses warning of an increasingly hostile environment. SKW Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz, the country’s largest ammonia producer, recently shut down one of its plants, citing soaring natural gas prices, CO₂ costs, and government levies. CEO Petr Cingr has called for the incoming government to scrap the gas levy and push the EU to reform its emissions certificate system. Without intervention, he warns, Europe’s fertiliser production could collapse, making farmers entirely dependent on imports. Meanwhile, the broader business community isn’t faring much better—industrial output has fallen 10% over the past two years 📉, and corporate leaders describe sentiment as the worst they’ve seen in decades.
🏭 With Germany heading into parliamentary elections on February 23rd, business leaders are pinning their hopes on Friedrich Merz and the CDU, who promise lower taxes, less bureaucracy, and cheaper energy. Yet, skepticism remains. Many worry that coalition politics will stall much-needed reforms, just as they did under Scholz. Big manufacturers like Volkswagen are scaling back local production, and mid-sized firms are weighing investments abroad. Some, like chainsaw-maker Stihl, have openly warned that if conditions don’t improve in five years, they will move expansion plans to Switzerland. Whether Merz, if elected, can reverse this trend remains to be seen. But one thing is clear—Germany’s industrial base is at a crossroads. 🚨🇩🇪
Musk’s $97B OpenAI Bid—Power Play or Just Disruption?
Elon Musk is making waves again, this time with a $97 billion unsolicited bid to acquire OpenAI’s non-profit controlling entity. The move, announced on February 11th, isn’t just about business—it’s the latest escalation in Musk’s rivalry with OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman. Musk, a co-founder of OpenAI, has been at odds with Altman over the company’s shift towards a profit-driven model, arguing it betrays its original safety-first AI mission. But with Musk’s own AI startup, xAI, competing in the same space, this bid looks more like a strategic attempt to disrupt OpenAI’s dominance rather than a genuine acquisition attempt.
OpenAI swiftly rejected the offer. Altman responded with a tongue-in-cheek counteroffer—$9.7 billion to "buy Twitter" (now X). The real game, however, isn’t between Musk and OpenAI’s board, but rather with regulators in California and Delaware, where OpenAI is registered. Musk’s lawyers are pushing for a legal review of OpenAI’s ownership transition, potentially slowing down its $40B fundraising efforts with investors like SoftBank. Even if Musk’s takeover bid is unlikely to succeed, it puts OpenAI in a difficult position—how do you argue you’re worth less than $97 billion when the world’s richest man is offering exactly that? 🚀💰
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