Navigating the Investment Landscape amid the 2024 Election
How will the 2024 U.S. presidential election reshape investment landscapes and open new opportunities in the ever-changing global economy?
As we approach the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the political landscape is not only shifting but also presenting unique investment opportunities for savvy investors. The decisions made during this election cycle will likely shape the economy for years to come. This newsletter delves into recent support rates for the major parties, outlines the economic plans proposed by leading candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, and provides an analysis of specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs) related to US politics. We will conclude with other investment opportunities to watch in this dynamic environment.
Recent Support Rates
As of October 2024, the recent poll reveals an average of 47.3% support rate for Trump while 49.1% for Harris, with Harris leading 1.8% nationally. Harris captures approximately 60% support among registered Democratic voters, while Trump remains a significant figure in the Republican primary, holding about 70% support among registered Republicans. For independent voters, who are crucial in this election, currently favoring Harris over Trump with a slight lead, where 52% support Harris and 48% support Trump.
Donald Trump’s Economic Plan
Donald Trump’s economic strategy for the upcoming election builds upon the policies of his previous administration, focusing on domestic tax cuts, increased tariffs on foreign goods, and deregulation.
Tax cut: Trump may push for the permanent implementation of individual and estate tax relief policies from the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act," reducing the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 15%.
Increased Tariff: Trump advocates for imposing a 10% tariff on all imported products in the United States and an additional 60% tariff on products imported from China.
Deregulation: A significant aspect of Trump’s economic plan is the promise of deregulation. He intends to roll back existing regulations across various sectors, including energy production and healthcare. By reducing regulatory burdens, he believes job creation and economic growth will be stimulated.
Domestic Energy Independence with Fossil-Fuel: Former President Trump's energy policy prioritized achieving energy independence primarily through the support of fossil fuel industries. This strategy involved rolling back environmental regulations, expediting permitting and leasing processes, and maintaining or increasing tax advantages for the oil and gas sectors. The overarching goal of these policies was to diminish the United States' dependence on foreign energy while strengthening domestic production capabilities.
Kamala Harris’s Economic Proposal
In contrast to Trump, Kamala Harris emphasizes inclusive economic growth, sustainability, and addressing wealth inequality.
Grocery Prices and Housing Costs: Implement a national ban on food price gouging, enhance FTC oversight, and intensively investigate price-fixing in the meat industry. For housing, offer $25,000 in down payment assistance to first-time homebuyers, build three million new housing units, and introduce a tax credit for developers of starter homes.
Tax Credit For Small Business and Child: Increase the tax deduction for new small businesses to $50,000 to stimulate 25 million new applications in two years. Also, a $6,000 credit for newborns and restore a $3,600 child tax credit for middle and lower-class families.
Increased Taxation on Wealthy Individuals: Harris proposes raising taxes on the wealthy and large corporations to fund social programs and infrastructure improvements.
Universal Healthcare: A cornerstone of Harris’s platform is the implementation of universal healthcare. She argues that accessible healthcare is essential for a productive workforce and can reduce overall costs in the long run.
Investments in Green Energy: Harris is committed to transitioning the U.S. to a green economy. Her proposal includes significant investments in renewable energy, which could create jobs and drive technological innovation.
Investment Opportunities
ETFs and Stock Related to Both Parties
Republican: The Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF (KRUZ) invests in equity securities of publicly traded companies that are associated with Republican members of Congress and their spouses. KRUZ is focused on companies that are poised to gain from infrastructure investments, and has been consistently growing from last October for 30%, from lowest point of $23 to $31. KRUZ had significant exposure to utilities stocks, which has shown strong performance recently, and likely contributed to the ETF’s overall gains.
Democratic: The Unusual Whales Subversive Democratic Trading ETF (NANC) aims to achieve long-term capital appreciation by following the investment decisions of Democratic members of the US Congress and their families. NANC targets technology companies, especially those involved in data management and digital transformation. Both candidates recognize the importance of technology in driving economic growth. However, Trump’s policies may favor more traditional tech firms, while Harris’s policies could benefit companies focusing on sustainable technologies. NANC has demonstrated consistent growth due to increasing demand for technology solutions across various industries, increased from $26 to $36 from last October.
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp: Since the attempted shot, which boosted the stock’s price in July, the price has been decreasing, from the highest point of $40.58 on 15tth of July to now of $16.
Renewable Energy Stocks
As the global economy shifts towards sustainability, investing in renewable energy companies could yield substantial returns. Companies focusing on solar, wind, and other renewable sources are likely to thrive under Harris’s proposed policies.
Infrastructure Development
With both candidates emphasizing infrastructure, investing in construction and engineering firms could be beneficial. These sectors are likely to see growth due to anticipated government spending on infrastructure projects.
Healthcare Sector
Regardless of the election outcome, the healthcare sector remains a robust investment opportunity. Companies innovating in pharmaceuticals, telehealth, and healthcare services are well-positioned for growth, especially if Harris's universal healthcare plan gains traction.
Technology Innovations
Investing in tech firms that focus on AI, cybersecurity, and data analytics could be advantageous. Both candidates recognize the importance of technological advancements in driving economic growth, making this sector a sound investment.
Conclusion
The upcoming U.S. presidential election presents numerous investment opportunities driven by the candidates’ economic plans and the prevailing political climate. Understanding the nuances of each candidate's approach can help investors make informed decisions. By considering specific ETFs like KRUZ and NANC, alongside other sectors such as renewable energy, infrastructure, healthcare, and technology, investors can position themselves favorably for the potential shifts that may arise from the election outcome.
As always, thorough research and careful analysis are key to navigating the complexities of the investment landscape during this pivotal time. Keep an eye on the developments leading up to the election, as they will undoubtedly shape the economic environment in the years to come.
Created by Arya & Yiding