Oil Market Report
Heightened geopolitical tensions and potential supply risks provide support for oil prices
As we navigate through the complexities of the global oil market in 2024, geopolitical tensions and supply-side dynamics continue to exert their influence on oil prices. From escalating conflicts in the Middle East to production adjustments by OPEC+, the landscape of oil production and pricing is ever-evolving. Let's delve into the key factors shaping the current state of the oil market and their implications for the future.
Brent Crude Oil price
Geopolitical factors have been a consistent influence on international oil prices in 2024. In April, Iran, the second-largest oil-producing country in OPEC, may become involved in the Israel-Palestine conflict, causing market anxiety to surge abruptly. Brent crude futures breached the symbolic $90/bbl threshold on 5 April, reaching the highest level since October 2023, amid heightened tensions between Israel and Iran.
Alongside geopolitical concerns, supply-side factors have also contributed to the upward momentum in oil prices.
Largest Crude Oil Producers
The United States🇺🇸 is the world's largest crude oil producer. Expectations suggest that the U.S. will grow by 0.4 million b/d in 2024. Following closely behind is Russia🇷🇺, with Saudi Arabia🇸🇦 taking the third spot. Among OPEC countries, Saudi Arabia boasts the highest oil production.
In 2023, these top three countries collectively contributed 32.7 million barrels per day to global oil production, accounting for almost 40% of the total. The production volumes of these countries have a significant impact on oil prices.
Maximize your productivity
Revolutionize your workflow with Notion - the all-in-one workspace for teams. From project management to note-taking, database organization to task tracking, Notion adapts to your unique workflow, fostering collaboration and efficiency. Experience the power of seamless integration, dynamic layouts, and customizable tools that elevate your productivity. Try Notion today and transform the way you work.
*This is sponsored advertising content.
Oil Production Outlook
OPEC+ countries are significant players in the oil market. Together, OPEC+ countries accounted for over one-third of global liquids production in 2023. In 2023, OPEC+ lowered its production targets in response to weakening global oil demand and falling crude oil prices. In March 2024, several OPEC+ countries announced an extension of additional voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day for the second quarter of 2024. The ongoing production reduction by OPEC+ is one of the key factors supporting high oil prices this year.
Looking at the global oil supply, although global petroleum production continues to grow📈, it does so at a slower rate due to supply growth outside of OPEC+ being offset by the OPEC+ voluntary production cuts. While forecast production outside of OPEC+ increases by 1.4 million b/d, led by the United States, forecast OPEC+ crude oil production in 2024 decreases by 1.1 million b/d compared with last year. According to EIA, the combination of flat production and rising consumption will add upward pressure to oil prices.
Created by Wendy
Great post, and amazing visualizations 😍👍
I think it’s important to note here that despite the U.S. being the largest crude oil producer, it still needs to import crude oil (mostly heavier, more sour crude oil) from other countries due to domestic refining needs.